Watershed Sedimentation Intelligence and Forecasting System
Modelling sedimentation in the Upper Athi River Basin using the Revised Morgan–Morgan–Finney (RMMF) model integrated with CA–Markov to quantify rising sediment loads and land-use impacts.
This project applies geospatial modelling and environmental simulation techniques to quantify sediment dynamics and assess the long-term impacts of land-use change on watershed systems.
By integrating hydrological modelling, land-use simulation, and geospatial analytics, the system provides spatial decision support for watershed management, environmental conservation, and sustainable land-use planning.
Key capabilities include:
- Sediment yield modelling
- Watershed analysis
- Land-use change simulation
- Environmental risk assessment
- Spatial forecasting
- Scenario-based planning support
The results support evidence-based interventions aimed at improving watershed resilience and protecting ecosystem services.
Results
Simulated annual sediment loads:
- 2003: 10.6 million tons
- 2013: 22.6 million tons
- 2023: 36.9 million tons
These values indicate a consistent and accelerating increase in sediment yield tied to land-use change and anthropogenic pressures.
Impact & Recommendations
The rising sedimentation threatens water resources, agricultural productivity, and ecosystem stability. Results support targeted soil conservation, land-use planning, and watershed management interventions to reverse trends and meet national development goals.
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