Modelling Sedimentation Loads in the Upper Athi River Basin using the Revised Morgan–Morgan–Finney Model

Overview

Sedimentation in the Upper Athi River Basin has accelerated from land-use change, agricultural intensification, and climate variability. This project models sediment loads to inform sustainable land and water management.

Methodology

The study applies the Revised Morgan Morgan Finney (RMMF) model, integrated with Cellular Automata Markov (CA–Markov) simulation to model runoff, raindrop-induced soil detachment, and sediment transport across the basin.

Datasets used:

• Digital Elevation Model (DEM)
• Soil datasets
• Climate data (rainfall, etc.)
• Land Use / Land Cover maps (2003, 2013, 2023)

Results

Simulated annual sediment loads:

• 2003: 10.6 million tons
• 2013: 22.6 million tons
• 2023: 36.9 million tons

These values indicate a consistent and accelerating increase in sediment yield tied to land-use change and anthropogenic pressures.

Impact & Recommendations

The rising sedimentation threatens water resources, agricultural productivity, and ecosystem stability. Results support targeted soil conservation, land-use planning, and watershed management interventions to reverse trends and meet national development goals.

Developed by

Elizabeth Muthoni —Geospatial & Remote Sensing Specialist